The Kyle Phoenix Blog: Kyle Phoenix Answers: What are the likely consequences of the collapse of brick and mortar retail in the US?

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-retail-apocalypse-has-officially-descended-on-america-2017-3

I agree it is changing, in 2002 I started a hybrid b/m store---reselling books online. At first as a Rich Dad experiment and then it exploded into a fulltime operation and I was buying out bookstores across the country, renting a larger apartment to hold merchandise and then eBay selling. But it did slow down because of the slow intrusion of EBooks, I then stopped /sifted because I foresaw having to purchase massive physical inventory to equate out in sales. I honestly literally saw the 80/20 rule in effect, 20% of my new inventory sold out in a week but the red sat around the house slowly selling for another six months, eventually getting me to 50% remainder. Luckily I foresaw and felt this shift so had stopped my plans to open a b/m store.

Now I'm 100% digital, my books are printed and sent to customers, eBooks delivered too, profit margins are higher because of less physical activity on my part and Amazons, what took longer was them regulating and then opening the system ---about four years and then on my part intellectual property creation. I do more visionary work now and instead of cd/dvd resale or drop shipping, create products.

Combine that with the fact that I haven't had cable since 2009 and then combine those trends---we're moving to a class convenience society. I do Hulu and Netflix for $30 a month and maybe an average of three to five films in theaters a year, I'm an outlier because, yes, I love books but I'm normal in that I have a laptop to acquire my personal preferences in entertainment. I just bought a yoga DVD as digital that I had years ago from Amazon. I would have paid upwards of $20 but digital it was $1.99.

My sales margins often in physical were $6.32 avg per item, best week $26k but now my per item cut is at least $3 less but I sell more regularly and to as many corners of the world.

I'm mainly selling to middle class and higher. Poorer people here in NY flock to stores, fact a lot of ny feels like repetitive stores and apartments. In Charlotte it was houses, spaced malls but retail strips that an intrepid walker could stroll to. The supermarket there was an eight block walk, here five maybe but delis, etc in-between. Ironically here in the city I use FreshDirect, a food delivery service. I've controlled my apartment living to only neighborhoods they service....West End Avenue in Manhattan looks like an eight foot block long box wall on garbage day, hundreds of FreshDirect boxes.

Again middle class and higher.

More mixed neighborhoods more stores. Poor people, 15 to 40% depending on age and temperament, about norm of 15% still physical shop from a distrust of the internet. I've been internet/mail order shopping for 20 years and never had a problem, maybe all those years of publishing by mail and then sales made me better at it.

Outside of larger urban areas the sprawl of space I think will concentrate shopping to WalMart and malls and supermarkets and min WalMarts that are supermarkets but simply less of them, maybe half because normal consumers can now buy in bulk. I think clothing stores will hybrid, ill touch and try on clothing and get it sent to me and carry an inventory of my closet on my phone. Sizing tech and personalization features is the future. My favorite color is rd but not bright red, I like a deep brick, blood red, I should be able to direct my color preferences at an object and get it delivered. I also have jackets I love that I can't find replacements of, tech should do that too.

I hate malls, crowded stores and I worked one black Friday at a WalMart and got there late, I leave stores if the line is over 3 people, I often think rewards cards should be expedited lanes, I would pay a $5 or $10 membership fee to never wait in line. Some European stores have cashiers just open shelves and a swipe system. As we get to universal I'd systems, I think that's where we're headed.

Retail stores will exist, less of them but for the masses and poor. I did personal shopping years ago and it's a great job in a weirdly distant yet close way. Intimate detachment. I would pay for that service too, I even have a membership just never used it.

I'm not a good consumer and curiosity makes me a loyal customer to probably 15% of my e. I like a place (currently a hole in the wall greasy spoon with a surprisingly refined chef) that I can see moving into the gap commercial space in my building and cutting the landlord in for 20% and discounts for residents, something else I would pay for. I do delivery of hot food, average once a week, again low because I enjoy cooking but I go to higher end supermarkets and curiosity has me trying different items.

That sense of non-community in my shopping is a mix of middle class and affluence. I want it my way but I am willing to be seduced for the right parameters. Hence my relationship with Saks.

Back to entrepreneurship, all of my business goals are non b/m, ironically the biggest is a book tour cross country to Barnes and Noble's (670 plus) to surge sales in a second larger go around to books. I already do book club meetings from tv studio where I produce my tv show, I can tape segments at home, I do radio interviews from home and 99% of my publicity is online, I just recently started printing flyers of books and that's because of printing a digital newsletter out. The digital newsletter goes to 1 million, the physical....20? I'll do 100 of the quarterly magazine combo, a limited physical run.

When I look at street vendors/stores, I wad in a store based book club, I think of expansion to online. The reverse of how I did it. I suggested to the bookstore, book club they do that, online their inventory. I doubt they have because of generational and minority business thinking is very 19th century. I can attest to that because some of my initial digital products had a minority bent (ha! Pun! It was minority LGBT info) and when I altered presentation to include more diversity on covers, sales went up...just Black and Latino, my international sales were higher than domestic.

Blacks and Latinos domestically are still crossing the digital divide. (The bookstore above is Black owned, last one in Manhattan...they now include art and smoothies and host book clubs....and are oblivious to the internet. I even suggested we book club members come in one day, ISBN inventory store and upload to Amazon. Silencio.). But ironically the book club is join-able thru Meetup. I know more technophobe people of color, another mass keeping retail stores open....the higher minority population in NYC probably accounts for this regardless of class here.

Your local malls will be browner and cheaper in populace. Touching stuff to purchase will become hip, poor people, low class. There is a certain affluent air to the quantity and quality of my personal deliveries and I tip well.

Jobs will combine and be certified, security guard and cashier, sales person and tech support, customer service and stylist, chef and nutritionist. I see more low pay, eventually $15 an hour jobs are hand/eye jobs...hand things, see things, some customer service, security, etc populated by more under-educated (less than Associate degrees).

I tell my students less school less basic tech savvy (ms Office, desktop support, typing, ability to cross software because you understand how to understand software) is the 21st century skill. I took Java, JavaScript, html, do web design, graphic design, PhotoShop, premiere cc, illustrator, quark, PageMaker, advanced systems. Administration ----all of those allow me to think tech.

Thinking tech will become a retail necessary skill set for the new stores. At WalMart at customer service we were taught more of the system of WalMart which made us better at the synergistic marketing and sales and relationships, we could tell you regular, mini, superstore differences and after awhile whether an item existed and where in citywide stores but I will give major props to the computer based learning of WalMart being the best training I've been thru in twenty years combined with a buddying-mentoring relationship. That retraining type will be the difference.

40% of the population won't be able to elasticize their thinking that way. Which will lead to immigration encouragement in the late 2020s because they will be amenable. Plus they'll be bilingual, the next skill base necessity. I see more people and ads for Spanish, French and Mandarin, Cantonese speakers (I'm working on basic Spanish myself).

Retail workers and environments will change based on region and class.

I tell people I'm Counselor Troi but I won't crash the ship. :)